Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 729 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 11 Oct 2025 - 12Z Wed 15 Oct 2025 ...Series of potent storms offer Aleutians to western and southern Alaska high wind/wave and heavy rain threats... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The energetic and stormy pattern starts out with above normal predictability with respect to the ejection of current west Pacific Typhoon Halong into the westerlies to Alaska this weekend into early next week and ending near average predictability with the approach of another deepened, closed low pressure system upstream. Maintained continuity by starting with equal weighting of the CMC/EC/GFS, including the EC/GEFS means over the weekend and then bumping up to a 70/30 deterministic to means ratio for this coming week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A stormy weather pattern will remain across parts of the Alaska domain this week in an overall warm pattern. A lead system will work through northern Alaska midweek, with some locally enhanced winds and precipitation lingering over the North Slope and the Interior into Friday in wake flow of the low. Upper trough energy split over the northern Gulf of Alaska may also act to focus modest mid-late week low development with some precipitation/unsettled weather for southern/southeast Alaska, followed by weekend frontal passage and some moderate gap flows. Upstream, closed upper low/trough development will support a main deep mean surface storm/low position over the Aleutians and Bering Sea late week through early next week that will offer a prolonged opportunity for periods of high winds/waves and wrapping rainfall. There continues to be a growing signal within the guidance for a deep and potent storm to lift in advance of this position over the weekend into early next week to focus a potentially significant threat for high winds/waves, wrapping rainfall and potential for coastal flooding into Southwest/Western Alaska along with enhanced snow potential more over colder northwestern Alaska. This strong extratropical low will have favorable upper support and a deep moisture connection to Typhoon Halong. Approach and downstream undercutting energy and system/frontal progression across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska should act to enhance lead inflow to fuel growing precipitation to spread across Kodiak Island and SouthCentral to Southeast Alaska Sunday into early next week with downstream translation. Additional deep low approach on the heels of this system is also then possible. Campbell/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html