Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 734 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 12 Oct 2025 - 12Z Thu 16 Oct 2025 ...Series of potent storms offer Aleutians to western and southern Alaska high wind/wave and heavy rain threats... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... A mean trough will be present through the extended period over the Bering Sea. Multiple deep, closed lows will lift northward while while several impulses of energy ejects from the flow into the Gulf of Alaska/Mainland. The latest guidance continues to have above average clustering with the leading low and now the secondary low Sunday into Tuesday before spread increases by midweek, particularly across the Gulf of Alaska. The energy and moisture associated with the current Pacific Typhoon Halong will be traveling in the westerlies to Alaska this weekend into early next week which accounts for some of the increased uncertainty. Maintained continuity by starting with equal weighting of the CMC/EC/GFS, including the EC/GEFS means over the weekend and then bumping up to a 60/40 deterministic to means ratio by the end of the extended period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A stormy weather pattern will remain across Locally enhanced winds and precipitation Upper trough energy split over the northern Gulf of Alaska may also act to focus modest mid-late week low development with some precipitation/unsettled weather for southern/southeast Alaska, followed by weekend frontal passage and some moderate gap flows. A closed upper low/trough development will support a main deep mean surface storm/low position over the Aleutians and Bering Sea late week through early next week that will offer a prolonged opportunity for periods of high winds/waves and wrapping rainfall. There continues to be a growing signal within the guidance for a deep and potent storm to lift in advance of this position over the weekend into early next week to focus a potentially significant threat for high winds/waves, wrapping rainfall and potential for coastal flooding into Southwest/Western Alaska along with enhanced snow potential more over colder northwestern Alaska. This strong extra tropical low will have favorable upper support and a deep moisture connection to Typhoon Halong. Approach and downstream undercutting energy and system/frontal progression across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska should act to enhance lead inflow to fuel growing precipitation to spread across Kodiak Island and SouthCentral to Southeast Alaska Sunday into early next week with downstream translation. Additional deep low approach on the heels of this system is also then possible. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html