Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 756 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 14 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sat 18 Oct 2025 ...Active pattern continues to bring high winds across the Aleutians to western mainland Alaska while heavy precipitation is expected for the southern coastal areas... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Model guidance today continues to show good agreement on an active synoptic pattern that brings fast-moving and strong cyclones across the Aleutians toward western or southwestern Alaska through the medium-range period. The main cyclone of concern through midweek next week will likely take this general path. However, both deterministic and ensemble guidance have been indicating a gradual southward trend in the cyclone track with each new model run. The latest 12Z ECMWF now has a cyclone track farthest south with its center barely north of the eastern Aleutians approaching Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning, which is quite a deviation from the 00Z EC mean that tracked the cyclone on the northern side of the guidance. The EC-AIFS shows a more pronounced southward trend on the cyclone track with the cyclone center now forecast to miss Bristol Bay altogether in the latest 12Z run. By late next week, despite increasing spread with the deterministic model outputs, ensemble means from dynamical models show fairly good agreement for the next occluded cyclone to move into the Bering Sea. Although this cyclone appears less intense than its predecessor, the eastern extension of the cyclone is forecast to carry abundant moisture into the southern coastal areas into the northern portion of the Panhandle later next week. The main cyclone itself is forecast to weaken while edging toward western Alaska late next week. The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on the consensus of 40% from the 12Z ECMWF/00Z and 12Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, with Days 7 and 8 mainly the consensus of the ensemble means. This blend yielded the midweek cyclone track farther south than yesterday's forecast package. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Next Monday should see the extratropical cyclone that originated from Typhoon Halong to begin exiting northwestwen Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. High winds are depicted for western Alaska, with heavy snow expected for western to central Brooks Range especially early on Monday. Meanwhile, heavy high-elevation snows and low- elevation rain will likely impact the South Central to northern Panhandle region Monday into Tuesday with a weakening cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska. Impacts from the deep cyclone of concern will likely make its presence felt beginning on Tuesday acrossainfaall the Aleutians with high winds veering from southwest to west along with moderate rainfall. The high wind threat and moderate precipitation should overspread much of the Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday as the core of the cyclone make landfall over southwestern mainland. The high wind threat should gradually lessen across western Alaska later next week but triple-point wave development over the Gulf of Alaska will likely bring heavy precipitation from South Central to northern Panhandle for the latter half of next week along with a threat of high winds continuing into Wednesday before the triple-point wave gradually weakens late next week. Persistent southwesterly flow across the Alaska domain will keep temperatures above normal for much of the state through the medium-range forecast period. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html