Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 755 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 16 Oct 2025 - 12Z Mon 20 Oct 2025 ...Active pattern continues to bring high winds across the Aleutians to western mainland Alaska, with moderate to heavy precipitation along the southern coastal areas... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Global models continue to depict an active synoptic pattern with more deep and fast-moving cyclones to move across the Aleutians toward western or southwestern Alaska through the medium-range period. Regarding the next Aleutian cyclone of concern through midweek next week, after a couple of days of gradual southward adjustments in the cyclone's forecast track by all models, today's guidance support splitting the cyclone into two centers--one continues an eastward track into the Gulf of Alaska, while another moves northeastward into southwestern Alaska Wednesday night or early Thursday. Thereafter, there is general model agreement for the cyclone centers to diverge further while steadily weakens. Meanwhile, agreement remains good for a weaker cyclone to track along the Aleutians Thursday to Friday before what appears to be the arrival of the next deep cyclone into the Aleutians by next weekend. The GFS as well as all of the ensemble means today favor the cyclone center to track right along the Aleutians. This is in contrast with the ECMWF and EC-AIFS which favor a track south of the Aleutians. By next Monday, there appears good indications from both deterministic and ensemble mean consensus for yet another deep cyclone to quickly approach western Aleutians. The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on the consensus of 40% from the 12Z ECMWF/00Z and 12Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean. A higher percentage from the operational GFS and ECMWF were used for Day 4 to depict the double-barrel structure of the cyclone approaching southwestern Alaska. By Day 8, mainly the consensus of the ensemble means was used. Overall, this blend yielded a surface isobaric pattern not too different from yesterday's WPC forecast package. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Impacts from the next deep cyclone of concern will likely culminate on Wednesday from the Aleutians spreading quickly into much of the Peninsula and southern mainland with moderate rainfall. Nevertheless, with today's guidance favoring splitting the cyclone into two centers, the high wind threat from eastern Aleutians to southern mainland appears to have lessened on Wednesday given that the strongest winds are expected to occur to the south of the southern center. Thereafter, triple-point wave development over the Gulf of Alaska will likely bring a period of enhanced precipitation from South Central to northern Panhandle for the latter half of next week. By next weekend, the threat of high winds has continued to increase across the Aleutians given the latest model indications on what could be the arrival of the next deep cyclone. High Winds are now indicated on WPC's Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook map for all of Aleutians to South Central for next weekend. Elsewhere, some light amounts of high-elevation snow and low-elevation rain are expected to reach farther north across the northern half of Alaska in association with the remnants of the midweek Aleutian cyclone. Temperature-wise, persistent southwesterly flow across the Alaska domain will keep temperatures above normal for much of the state through the medium-range forecast period. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html