Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 759 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 17 Oct 2025 - 12Z Tue 21 Oct 2025 ...Active pattern continues to bring high winds across the Aleutians to western mainland Alaska this weekend into early next week... ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Global models continue to depict an active synoptic pattern with more deep and fast-moving cyclones to move through the Aleutians and into southwestern Alaska. The medium-range forecast period should begin with the weakening phase of a deep cyclone engulfing the southern half of Alaska. Models have generally settled into a solution that splits the cyclone into two centers, with the one tracking eastward into the Gulf of Alaska as the main center, while another center moves northeastward into southwestern Alaska. Thereafter, the entire cyclonic circulation breaks apart over the high terrain of southern mainland Alaska. Meanwhile, models show general agreement on a weaker cyclone to track near or just south of the Aleutians into Friday. The ECMWF favors a track closer to the islands in contrast to a more southern track shown by the GFS and the intermediate solutions by the CMC. This low is then absorbed by a stronger cyclone further offshore which originated from a typhoon. Models today are showing a faster trend for this cyclone to move toward British Columbia this weekend. Across the Aleutians, models continue to show decent agreement on the arrival of the next deep cyclone this next weekend. Ensemble means from the EC, GEFS, and CMC generally place the cyclone center just south of the central Aleutians early on Sunday, which is then followed by yet another deep cyclone on Monday right on the heels of the former. Ensemble means then merge the two cyclones into a giant vortex centered over the eastern Bering Sea by Tuesday morning. Nevertheless, it appears that the terrain of mainland Alaska would favor splitting this huge cyclone into two centers--one over the Bering Sea and another over the Gulf of Alaska. The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on the consensus of 40% from the 12Z ECMWF/00Z and 12Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, with higher percentages from the ensemble means for Days 7 and 8. Overall, this blend yielded a surface isobaric pattern very similar to yesterday's WPC forecast package. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Impacts from the next deep cyclone of concern will likely winding down on Thursday with winds and precipitation along the Gulf coast to northern Panhandle steadily taper off into Friday. Thereafter, a quick-moving cyclone associated with a former typhoon could bring a period of enhanced winds and precipitation across the southern portion of the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday. Also by next weekend, high winds are anticipated across the Aleutians given continued model indications on the arrival of the next deep cyclone. Precipitation amounts have also increased for the central Aleutians but not high enough to warrant a heavy rain area. Meanwhile, the High Wind area for all of Aleutians to South Central for this weekend has been extended into next Monday on WPC's Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook map. Elsewhere, only light amounts of high-elevation snow and low- elevation rain are expected to reach farther north across the northern half of Alaska in association with the remnants of the midweek Aleutian cyclone. Temperature-wise, persistent southwesterly flow across the Alaska domain will keep temperatures above normal for much of the state on Friday before a cooling trend brings below normal temperatures for the high terrain of Brooks Range and Alaska Range by the weekend into early next week. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html