Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 634 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 23 Oct 2025 - 12Z Mon 27 Oct 2025 ...Heavy rain and gusty winds likely for the Southeast this week... ...Overview... An elongated upper low (with multiple vortices) will be stationed over the region for much of the period with an axis from eastern Russia, over the Mainland, and the Gulf. The weather across Alaska during the extended range period (Thursday-Monday) will be driven by one main surface low which meanders in the Gulf for several days. This will a generally wet period for the Southeast with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The guidance is in relatively good agreement with the overall large scale upper pattern, but there remains plenty of uncertainty in the details. On Thursday, one surface low will be weakening near the Southern Coast as another one deepens in the Gulf, with guidance suggesting central low pressure possibly down into the 950s. There remains some variability with exact low placement still in the Gulf, but very consistent agreement on its presence and track. With a blocky ridge over Canada, this low should meander in the Gulf through the rest of the period, but weaken with time. Farther West, there is more uncertainty in the track and strength of another likely weak shortwave/surface low crossing from the western Bering Sea to the Aleutians. The WPC progs today used a blend of the deterministic guidance through Day 6, with increasing weighting of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by Days 7 and 8 to account for some greater uncertainty. This maintained good agreement with yesterdays forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... After a wet short range period as well, another round of heavy precipitation (with mountain snows) will move into the Panhandle Wednesday-Friday. The heaviest rainfall should come to an end by the weekend but into early next week will continue to be wet for especially the Southeast as the low meanders in the Gulf. Guidance is suggesting multi- day rainfall totals of several inches in some locations across the Panhandle. Gusty winds will also accompany this system mid to later in the week, with a high wind area added today to parts of the Panhandle for Thursday. The heaviest winds (and consequently waves) will be offshore though, but this will create a significant maritime threat. Some moderate gap winds may be present in favorable locations on the backside of this low too. Elsewhere across Alaska, the southern coast, Aleutians, and parts of the Mainland may remain generally unsettled and showery underneath the upper low, but nothing hazardous. Southwest and southern Alaska should be near or below normal the entire period underneath the upper low. Parts of the Southeast may be warm on Thursday ahead of the main low, but will trend colder. Eastern and central Alaska and the North Slope look to be above normal with influence from the upper ridge and generally southerly flow. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html