Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 537 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 26 Oct 2025 - 12Z Thu 30 Oct 2025 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Latest guidance is clustered better than normal through much of the upcoming medium range time period. There is good agreement on the overall large scale pattern, albeit with expected uncertainty in the details. A 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend is favored Sunday into Tuesday to mitigate smaller scale differences as consistent with individual system predictability. Switched preference to a GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and best compatible 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean blend at longer time frames amid growing forecast spread and lowering predictability. This solution includes the following of latest guidance trends to offer a deep but more southward adjusted storm track over the far northeast Pacific in about a week. However, there remains some opportunity for additional with phasing system energies to the north to lift the low and impacts more closely toward far Southeast Alaska to monitor. Another deep and impactful system upstream in a renewed stormy pattern is also expected to emerge/evolve and threaten the Aleutians then downstream to the Gulf of Alaska in about a week. ...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A main upper low/trough will drift slowly southeastward over the Bering Sea this weekend while multiple waves rotate around it. The upper low/trough is forecast to elongate by early next week as energies shift from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. Expect unsettled weather for West/Southwest through the Aleutians to Southern/Southeast Alaska in this pattern. Inland impacts do not seem to reach normal hazards thresholds for most areas, but would include more susceptible Southeast Alaska recovery areas. Downstream, expect northern Gulf of Alaska system development with moderate precipitation and wrapping winds impact potential. In this pattern, a lead upper low/trough set to linger over the Gulf through the weekend into next week will steadily lose influence. Meanwhile, an aforementioned storm in a renewed stormy pattern upstream is then expected to emerge/evolve to threaten the Aleutians then downstream to the Gulf of Alaska in about a week. Mainly benign and mild weather is expected for much of northern and interior Alaska with relatively higher pressure forecast to develop over these regions this weekend into next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html