Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 700 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 28 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sat 01 Nov 2025 ...Stormy pattern for the Gulf of Alaska and South/Southeast Alaska next week... ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... There is reasonable mid-larger scale guidance agreement overall, albeit still with one major exception into medium-range time scales for the Alaskan domain in an increasingly stormy pattern. A composite most in line with the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean seems to provide best continuity and works well for most areas next week. There is still quite different handling in guidance of a deepening north Pacific storm system for Tuesday/Wednesday with an envelope of solutions ranging from lifting robustly northward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska versus the 12/18 UTC GFS/GEFS means that have a more progressive and more eastward shifted path with much less robust wind/wave and precipitation threats for Southeast Alaska. The 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean offers a seemingly reasonable storm track following other model trends to the eastern Gulf of Alaska after collaboration with WFO Juneau. This scenraio will be re-evaluated as the variance signal further improves with newer guidance. Upstream upper flow interaction potential seems to favor the more northward lift of the storm. ...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... An amplified northern stream upper low/trough will shift robustly southeastward from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska early next week. Expect lingering unsettled weather for coastal Southwest Alaska into the Aleutians and the Alaskan Peninsula. Inland impacts do not seem to reach normal hazards thresholds. However, downstream northern Gulf of Alaska system genesis offers some moderate rainfall and wrapping gap wind enhancement. This system would also influence downstream lifting of the aforementioned lead north Pacific deepening storm system up to the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a renewed stormy pattern upstream with deep low potential is expected to emerge/evolve to threaten the Aleutians before gaining strength and evolving steadly downstream mid-late next week into next weekend across the Gulf of Alaska. This sets the stage for significant maritime hazards and lead into end of month heavy precipitation and high winds for eastern SouthCentral and especially Southeast Alaska to include heavy mountain snows. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html