Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 620 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Valid 12Z Wed 29 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sun 02 Nov 2025 ...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS WEEK... ...Synoptic Overview... Through the end of the workweek and into the weekend, the synoptic pattern will feature a large upper level trough with embedded lows starting out Wednesday over the Bering Strait down to the Aleutians. The multiple lows over the Aleutians will combine into one low over the western Gulf by Friday. Meanwhile the entire longwave trough will shift east to over western Alaska. Once there, the entire pattern is likely to get stuck with the center of the upper low remaining over the western Gulf through the weekend. The upper low will get down to about 510 m, meaning the air mass over much of the state will be cold...with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the teens. However, limited moisture will be confined to near the lows over the Aleutians and the Gulf, meaning most of the precipitation will focus into the Panhandle and the Wrangells. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The guidance was in very poor agreement considering the relatively unchanging nature of the upper level pattern. Ultimately, the guidance could not decide on how fast, strong, or where the most potent upper level shortwaves would track, which then led to large differences in where the resulting surface lows track. Given this, the 00Z EC and the 12Z GFS appeared to be in the best agreement of the deterministics with each other, though that agreement was not very much. A blend of the two was used for the D4/Wed and D5/Thu periods. After that, the ensembles (GFS & EC) were used almost entirely for the D6 through D8 periods. As is typical with the ensembles, the smaller but nonetheless important features such as shortwaves and smaller surface lows are lost in the ensemble blend, so the days 7 and 8 upper level forecasts are nearly identical to one another, due to the extremely low predictability of the locations and speeds of any lows that would perturb the upper level pattern. Thus, it's likely when those features are better resolved that there will be many more differences in the overall upper level pattern, including those that may help to move the upper level trough along. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Despite the aforementioned low predictability, the upper level low at the base of the longwave trough will likely cause enough forcing to be present to allow for a strong 970s low to move into the Gulf Friday. The leading front will bring a period of heavy precipitation, most likely on D5/Thursday into the Panhandle. Temperatures will be cold enough aloft to support higher elevation snows, while most of the population at lower elevations will see periods of heavy rain, especially as that leading front moves ashore. A prolonged period of onshore flow (subject to change based on the unresolved tracks of any smaller surface lows), will keep unsettled conditions ongoing across the Panhandle into the weekend, though at diminishing intensity with time. Thus, the heavy precipitation area in the hazards remains unchanged with this forecast update. Despite the low central pressure of the surface low, its track likely staying offshore of the Panhandle should keep any high winds confined to the typical barrier jets, and likely will not move into the inner channels of the Panhandle. Thus, the high winds hazard was removed with this update in coordination with the AJK/Juneau, AK forecast office. && Wegman Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html