Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 739 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 02 Nov 2025 - 12Z Thu 06 Nov 2025 ...Synoptic Overview... The synoptic pattern across the Alaskan domain continues to favor fast-moving cyclones to track west to east through the Aleutians then gradually dissipate over the Gulf of Alaska as a negatively- tilted upper ridge remains stationary across eastern mainland Alaska and further up into the Arctic Ocean in the form of an omega block. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The ensemble means from the ECMWF, GEFS, and CMC show decent agreement on the above-mentioned synoptic pattern evolution through the medium-range period. Much of the uncertainty is in regard to the timing of a couple of cyclones that are forecast to reach and move from west to east along the Aleutians early next week. The GFS is near the slow end of the spectrum followed by the UKmet, while the ECMWF and CMC are near the fast end of the spectrum regarding both of these cyclones by a few hundred miles to the east. The GFS has trended toward the faster EC/CMC solution since yesterday regarding the leading cyclone forecast to move swiftly across the Aleutians Sunday night into early Monday. By the end of the medium-range period, both the deterministic and ensemble means show decent agreement on the next significant cyclone to track along the Aleutians with the GFS/GEFS cluster placing the cyclone center brushing just south of the island chain while the EC/CMC cluster remains farther south and with a much faster forward motion. The Alaska forecast package was based on a general model consensus of 40% from the 12Z ECMWF/00Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, with the majority of the blend based on the consensus of the ensemble means for Days 6 to 8 and leaning toward the faster EC/CMC cluster. This blend yielded an isobaric pattern compatible with yesterday's WPC forecasts but with a slower eastward progression and farther separation of the cyclones traveling south of the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The medium-range period will begin with the weakening phase of a deep cyclone centered over the Gulf of Alaska, along with the moderate to locally heavy precipitation gradually tapering off through the end of the weekend across South Central to the Panhandle. Nevertheless, light to locally moderate precipitation is forecast to linger along the southern shoreline to the Panhandle through midweek. Thereafter, a couple of cyclones appear to track very quickly near/along the Aleutians early to middle of next week, with the subsequent cyclone being the stronger of the two. Unsettled weather appears to be in store for the Aleutians by early next week before reaching the Peninsula possibly by midweek. The predicted pressure pattern appears to favor high winds behind this system. Therefore, a "High Winds" area has been introduced on the WPC Hazards Outlook map for the central to eastern Aleutians on Day 7 Wednesday 11/5. Temperatures will be mostly above average except for the central Brooks Range, and along the eastern Aleutians this weekend when below normal high temperatures are in the forecasts. Gradual clearing skies will allow temperatures to return closer to normal for interior mainland Alaska while clouds and precipitation will keep high temperatures cooler than normal across the West Southwest. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html