Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 654 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 07 Nov 2025 - 12Z Tue 11 Nov 2025 ...Strong low pressure system will affect the Aleutians Friday into the weekend with possible high winds... ...Overview... Mean upper troughing with its axis atop the western Mainland will be in place late week into the weekend, as an amplified ridge holds over northwestern Canada into the Arctic Ocean just to the trough's east, blocking its movement. A couple of rounds of energy aloft on the southern side of the trough and surface low pressure systems will move through the northeastern Pacific and bring some light to moderate precipitation to Southcentral and Southeast Alaska, along with moderate gap winds on the backside. Upstream, the next strong upper/surface low looks to reach the Aleutians vicinity Friday and into the weekend, weakening as it pushes eastward into early next week. The trough pattern should cool temperatures across much of the Mainland and the Alaska Peninsula compared to the near term, with areas of the western Mainland generally below normal. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Model guidance is remarkably agreeable regarding the synoptic scale pattern described above, and even the smaller scale details show reasonable agreement. Exact locations of Gulf and northeast Pacific low pressure show some minor spread, but typical for the medium range. Then it is more agreeable with the recent 12Z guidance that low pressure systems moving east from Kamchatka and northeast through the northern Pacific (along with their upper level energy counterparts) should combine by Saturday to create a deep surface low in the 950s or even 940s mb. Model spread grows a bit with the timing, track, and rate of weakening of the low as it moves east, but nothing atypical. There is a general signal for another low to approach the Aleutians by the end of the period next Tuesday. The WPC forecast was based on a multi-model deterministic blend early in the period. Considering the reasonable model agreement, was able to maintain a majority of deterministic models in the blend through the period, though with some incorporation of the ensemble means to temper the differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A surface low pressure system atop the Gulf at the start of the period Friday will lead to precipitation chances across Southcentral Alaska. Moist inflow to the east will allow for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska late week as well. Precipitation amounts should stay modest in both places. Farther inland, light snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the northeast Pacific low pressure pattern, gap winds are possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally be in the 30-45kt range, and thus staying below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. Another low pressure system moving northeast through the Pacific over the weekend will lead to moderate to locally heavy precipitation amounts for at least southern parts of the Panhandle. The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should come in with moderate precipitation around Friday. High winds potentially in excess of 50-55 knots are possible, with southerly flow ahead of the low system Friday, and then the core of the low pressure system may track over the western Aleutians Friday night and east across the Aleutians on Saturday, lingering into Sunday. This allows for a High Winds area for Friday-Sunday in the Day 3-7 Hazards, though there could be rounds of quieter conditions at individual places. The low generally looks to weaken as it moves east into early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move across the Alaska Peninsula later Saturday into Sunday and into Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the low track and timing. Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range period. By Friday, the Alaska Peninsula and Y-K Delta will see below average temperatures for both highs and lows with the core of the trough aloft, which should last there into Saturday and expand north. Above normal temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely to stay above normal (highs in the upper teens). Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html