Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 659 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 08 Nov 2025 - 12Z Wed 12 Nov 2025 ...Strong low pressure system will affect the Aleutians Friday into the weekend with possible high winds with heavy precipitation possible for the southern Panhandle this weekend... ...Overview... An upper level and surface low will be in place when the period begins Saturday, weakening in favor of another upper low that lifts towards the Panhandle. This low will bring a period of heavy rainfall (and mountain snows) to particularly southern parts of the Panhandle region this weekend. Moderate gap winds will also be possible on the backside of this system. Meanwhile, upstream, the next strong upper/surface low looks to reach the western Aleutians by Friday, with some weakening as it pushes eastward into early next week and another shortwave rounding the base of this trough spins up another upper low in the Gulf next week. High winds may be a hazard with this low as it moves through the western Aleutians. Another modestly strong low looks to approach the western Aleutians around next Wednesday with another round of high winds. The general trough pattern should cool temperatures across much of the Mainland and the Alaska Peninsula compared to the near term, with areas of the western Mainland generally below normal. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Model guidance today continues to show above average agreement on the synoptic scale pattern described above. Uncertainties, even into next week, include exact locations and timing of systems. The guidance shows very good agreement that the low in the western Bering Sea this weekend may have a central pressure as low as the upper 940s. There is some variability in the timing of a shortwave as it spins up an occluded surface low off the main system in the Gulf, with the GFS a bit stronger and more south with the upper system than consensus. There is agreement that another low will approach the Aleutians mid next week, but uncertainty in the timing. The WPC forecast today used a general deterministic model blend through Day 5, gradually increasing weighting of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by Day 8. This maintains good agreement with yesterdays WPC forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A surface low pressure system in the Gulf at the start of the period will lead to precipitation chances across Southcentral Alaska. Moist inflow to the east from both this weakening low and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska late week, with heavy precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the Panhandle. Farther inland, light snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the second low pressure system, gap winds are possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally be in the 30-45kt range, and thus staying below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should come in with moderate precipitation around Friday. High winds potentially in excess of 50-55 knots are possible, with southerly flow ahead of the low system Friday, and then the core of the low pressure system may track over the western Aleutians Friday night and east across the Aleutians on Saturday. This allows for a High Winds area for Friday-Saturday in the Day 3-7 Hazards. The low generally looks to weaken as it moves east Sunday into early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move across the Alaska Peninsula later Saturday into Sunday and into Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the low track and timing. Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range period. The Alaska Peninsula and Y-K Delta will see below average temperatures for both highs and lows lasting there into Saturday and gradually expanding north. Above normal temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely to stay above normal (highs in the upper teens). Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html