Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 647 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 09 Nov 2025 - 12Z Thu 13 Nov 2025 ...Strong low pressure system will bring high winds to the Aleutians into the weekend with another possible system next week... ...Heavy precipitation possible for the southern Panhandle this weekend... ...Overview... An upper level and surface low will be weakening as the period begins Sunday, while another upper low that lifts towards the Panhandle from the Northeast Pacific. This low will bring a period of heavy rainfall (and mountain snows) to especially southern parts of the Panhandle region this weekend. Meanwhile, upstream, the next strong upper/surface low will be moving into the Bering Sea, with some weakening as it pushes eastward into early next week and a shortwave rounding the base of this trough spins another upper low that track towards the Gulf next week. High winds will be a hazard with this low as it moves through the western Aleutians, mainly for Saturday. Another modestly strong low looks to impact the western Aleutians by next Tuesday- Wednesday with another round of high winds. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Model guidance today continues to show above average agreement on the synoptic scale pattern described above. Uncertainties, even into next week, include exact locations and timing of systems. The guidance shows very good agreement that the low in the western Bering Sea this weekend may have a central pressure as low as the upper 940s. There remains some variability in the timing of a shortwave as it spins up a surface low off the main system and tracks into the Gulf, with the GFS still a bit stronger and more south/west with the upper system than consensus. There is agreement that another low will move into the western Bering Sea early to mid next week, with a second low lifting northward towards the Aleutians, but uncertainty in the timing of this evolution. The WPC forecast today used a general deterministic model blend through Day 5, gradually increasing weighting of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by Day 8. This maintains good agreement with yesterdays WPC forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Moist inflow to the east from both the initial weakening low in the Gulf and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska this weekend, with heavy precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the Panhandle. Moderate precipitation should extend north towards southeast Alaska and the Southern Coast with time. Farther inland, light snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the second low pressure system, gap winds may be possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally stay below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should come in with moderate precipitation towards the end of the short range period later this week. High winds potentially in excess of 50-55 knots are possible with the core of the low pressure system tracking into the central/eastern Aleutians by Saturday. This allows for a High Winds area for Saturday in the Day 3-7 Hazards. The low generally looks to weaken as it moves east Sunday into early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move across the Alaska Peninsula later Saturday into Sunday and into Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the low track and timing. Gusty winds and light precipitation may impact parts of Western Alaska too. The next low will bring another round of precipitation and high wind potential to parts of the Aleutians by early next week. Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range period under general troughing. The most below normal temperatures should focus around western/southwest Alaska. Above normal temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely to stay well above normal (highs in the upper teens). Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html