Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 558 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 10 Nov 2025 - 12Z Fri 14 Nov 2025 ...Strong low pressure system will bring high winds to the Aleutians next week... ...Heavy precipitation possible for the southern Panhandle this weekend and may linger into early next week... ...Overview... Weakening of an upper level and surface low will be ongoing while another upper low that lifts towards the Panhandle from the Northeast Pacific. This low will bring a period of heavy rainfall (and mountain snows) to especially southern parts of the Panhandle region this weekend. Meanwhile, upstream, the next strong upper/surface low will be moving into the Bering Sea, with some weakening as it pushes eastward into early next week and a shortwave rounding the base of this trough spins another upper low that track towards the Gulf next week. High winds will be a hazard with this low as it moves through the western Aleutians, mainly for Saturday. Another modestly strong low looks to impact the western Aleutians by next Tuesday- Wednesday with another round of high winds. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The latest suite of guidance maintains the initial above average clustering with the surface low lifting from the North Pacific just prior to the start of the extended and the upper/surface low approaching from the Bering Sea. Confidence in the timing and location returns to average by midweek and the amount of spread increases with the next system upstream. There remains some variability in the timing of a shortwave as it spins up a surface low off the main system and tracks into the Gulf, with the GFS still a bit stronger and more south/west with the upper system than consensus. There is agreement that another low will move into the western Bering Sea early to mid next week, with a second low lifting northward towards the Aleutians, but uncertainty in the timing of this evolution. WPC utilized a multi-model approach for the first half of the extend forecast with the latter half including 25% to 50% weighting of the ensemble means. This maintains good agreement with yesterdays WPC forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Moist inflow to the east from both the initial weakening low in the Gulf and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska this weekend, with heavy precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the Panhandle. The moisture being transported with be 2-3 standard deviations above normal and will certainly aid in the enhancement of rainfall and mountain snows across the southern part of the Panhandle. Moderate precipitation should extend north towards the Southern Coast with time. Farther inland, light snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the second low pressure system, gap winds may be possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally stay below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should come in with moderate precipitation towards the end of the short range period later this week. The low generally looks to weaken as it moves east Sunday into early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move into Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the low track and timing. Gusty winds and light precipitation may impact parts of Western Alaska too. The next low will bring another round of precipitation and high wind potential to parts of the Aleutians by early next week. Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range period under general troughing. The most below normal temperatures should focus around western/southwest Alaska. Above normal temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely to stay well above normal (highs in the upper teens). Campbell/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html