Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 700 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 11 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 15 Nov 2025 ...Strong low pressure system will bring high winds to the Aleutians... ...Overview... Periods of rain and mountain snows will continue for the Panhandle in the wake of one system and another approaches in the Gulf. A strong low looks to impact the western Aleutians Tuesday- Wednesday high winds and then will continue into the Gulf. Another broad, deep low will track east across the Bering toward the far western reaches of the state by the end of the extended period which may potentially usher in another round of precipitation and high winds. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Aside from decent clustering of the overall pattern initially, models begin to increase spread by early Wednesday leaving confidence on timing, location and potential impacts fair at best. The biggest offender is with the closed upper low that is expected to migrate east through the Bering sending low pressure systems east toward the western part of the state and the Gulf. The CMC is much more progressive while the EC lags behind an positioned several hundred miles to the south/west in the North Pacific. As such, equal parts of the the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET were used as a starting point for Day 4 and for Day 5 and beyond the ensemble means were weighting from 20 to 60% in order to dampen the spread in the guidance. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Moist inflow to the east from both the initial weakening low in the Gulf and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska this weekend, with heavy precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the Panhandle. The moisture being transported with be 2-3 standard deviations above normal and will certainly aid in the enhancement of rainfall and mountain snows across the southern part of the Panhandle. Moderate precipitation should extend north towards the Southern Coast with time. Farther inland, light snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the second low pressure system, gap winds may be possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally stay below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should come in with moderate precipitation towards the end of the short range period later this week. The low generally looks to weaken as it moves east Sunday into early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move into Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the low track and timing. Gusty winds and light precipitation may impact parts of Western Alaska too. The next low will bring another round of precipitation and high wind potential to parts of the Aleutians by early next week. Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range period under general troughing. The most below normal temperatures should focus around western/southwest Alaska. Above normal temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely to stay well above normal (highs in the upper teens). Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html