Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 602 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Valid 12Z Wed 12 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sun 16 Nov 2025 ***Strong low pressure system may affect the Aleutians next weekend*** ...Synoptic Overview... Most of mainland Alaska should be relatively quiet in terms of impactful weather through the middle to end of the upcoming week, with storm systems of consequence mainly confined to maritime areas and close to the coast. A strengthening low approaches the southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island towards Friday, and the Bering Sea and Aleutians have multiple low pressure systems on the distant forecast horizon for next weekend. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is generally in good synoptic scale agreement for Wednesday and into Thursday, with a multi- deterministic model blend working out well as a starting point. The GFS is a little to the south of the model consensus with the low over the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, but still within the ensemble spread. There is now better agreement with the second low pressure system tracking towards the Gulf and Alaska Peninsula towards the end of the week, with pressures generally on the order of 975 to 985 mb per recent model guidance. For the Bering Sea and Aleutians next weekend, both the CMC and ECMWF convey the potential for a sub-960 mb low reaching the Aleutians. The GFS is definitely weaker and slower to arrive, but the AIFS guidance is more aligned with the ECMWF idea, so a stronger storm is being depicted on the Day 7 and 8 pressure progs. Confidence is not quite high enough yet to depict any wind or heavy precipitation hazards on the medium range hazards chart, but this could change in the days ahead. The ensemble means were increased to about 40% by next weekend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern coastal areas of the state through Friday as the Gulf lows bring in some onshore flow, but it mainly appears to be light to moderate in intensity for the most part. Temperatures are generally expected to be near to slightly below average across much of the Interior through the end of the week, and above average near the Arctic Coast. Colder temperatures likely arrive by next weekend, with some subzero highs possible across northeastern portions of the mainland. Looking ahead to next weekend, a rather stormy and unsettled weather pattern likely develops over the Bering Sea region and the Aleutians. A low pressure system is currently expected to move off eastern Siberia and become occluded over the western Bering, and potentially an even stronger low arrives from the southwest, and affecting the eastern Aleutians and the eastern Bering by next Sunday. This latter system can be traced to what will be the future remnants of Typhoon Fung-Wong that is currently near the Philippines. Should the stronger scenario come to pass, strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas could all be realized. This will continue to be closely monitored in the days ahead. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html