Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 556 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 13 Nov 2025 - 12Z Mon 17 Nov 2025 ***Strong low pressure system expected to affect the Aleutians next weekend with high winds*** ...Synoptic Overview... Most of mainland Alaska should be relatively quiet in terms of impactful weather through the end of the upcoming week, with storm systems of consequence mainly confined to maritime areas and close to the coast. A low pressure system approaches the southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island towards Friday with terrain enhanced rains and mountain snows. A much stronger storm is becoming increasingly likely to affect the central Aleutians and the Bering by next weekend. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is generally in good synoptic scale agreement for Thursday into Friday, with a multi-deterministic model blend working out well as a starting point. There is good overall agreement with the low pressure system tracking towards the Gulf and Alaska Peninsula towards the end of the week, with pressures generally on the order of 975 to 980 mb per recent model guidance. For the Bering Sea and Aleutians next weekend, both the CMC and ECMWF convey the potential for a sub-960 mb low reaching the Aleutians, and the GFS has trended strongly in this direction as well compared to its weaker solution yesterday. Therefore, confidence is now high enough to depict a high wind area on the medium range hazards chart for the 15th and 16th. The ensemble means were increased to about 40% by Sunday into Monday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern coastal areas of the state through Friday as the Gulf low brings in some onshore flow, but it mainly appears to be light to moderate in intensity for the most part with no hazard areas needed. Temperatures are generally expected to be near to slightly below average across much of the Interior through the end of the week, and above average near the Arctic Coast. Colder temperatures likely arrive by next weekend, with some subzero highs likely across northeastern portions of the mainland. Looking ahead to next weekend, a rather stormy and unsettled weather pattern likely develops over the Bering Sea region and the Aleutians. A low pressure system is currently expected to move off eastern Siberia and become occluded over the western Bering, and replaced by an even stronger low that arrives from the southwest, and affecting the central and eastern Aleutians, and the eastern Bering by Saturday night into Sunday. This latter system can be traced to what will be the future remnants of Typhoon Fung-Wong that is currently near the Philippines. This will likely result in strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas for this region. This will continue to be closely monitored in the days ahead. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html