Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 655 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 Valid 12Z Sat 15 Nov 2025 - 12Z Wed 19 Nov 2025 ...Powerhouse Storm to Impact Aleutians/Bering/Southwest Alaska... ...Synoptic Overview... Wet, and unsettled pattern for mainly the maritime areas and the southern/southeast coastal tier into later week. In this flow a low pressure system will approach the southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island towards Friday with terrain enhanced rains and mountain snows into the weekend. Growing signal persists for a much stronger storm to impact the Aleutians and the Bering Sea by this weekend before affecting Southwest Alaska. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Stormy flow for portions of Alaska and vicinity through medium range period. Much of the Interior and North Slope vicinity will be cooler with limited areas of precipitation on a mean upper trough. Periods of enhanced wind/waves along with precipitation is expected to reach the Gulf and focus along the southern coast and Southeast. Upstream, a deep extratropical low with energy and moisture connection to current West Pacific Typhoon Fung-Wong looks to focus impacts into the Aleutians/southern Bering Sea into this weekend and may affect Southwest Alaska and onward late weekend into early next week. There is a lot of spread in the guidance particularly with this low and accompanied energies which has lowered confidence on where it will track. However there is increasing confidence that high winds could pack a punch to the Aleutians and the Southwest along with impactful weather. Overall, leaned toward a heavier weighting of 12 UTC ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensembles with some inclusion of the GFS and CMC initially. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern coastal areas of the state Friday into Saturday as an emerging Gulf of Alaska low enhances onshore flow, but it mainly appears to be moderate in intensity for the most part. Mean temperatures are generally expected to trend below average across much of the Interior and the North Slope over much the forecast period. Looking ahead to the weekend into early next week, a very stormy and unsettled weather pattern will likely work to the Aleutians and Bering Sea. A deep and powerful low pressure system is expected to move off eastern Siberia and become occluded into the western Bering Sea. A stronger and impactful extratropcial low tracking from the northwest Pacific is then slated to lift ahead of the western Bering Sea low up through the Aleutians into the Bering Sea this weekend. This latter deep system has some energy and long fetch moisture connections to current west-Pacific Typhoon Fung- Wong. This will likely result in strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas through the Aleutians/Bering Sea and could lead into later weekend to early next week impacts into Southwest Alaska along with subsequent unsettling downstream translation of system energies and moderate precipitation/winds through the Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska tier. Campbell/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html