Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 619 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 18 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 22 Nov 2025 ...Synoptic Overview... An active storm track will be in place across the North Pacific into the Gulf region for next week. The main upper level vortex is expected to reside over the Bering, with shortwaves pivoting around the southern and eastern periphery of this main low and sustaining the development of a few surface lows. The most impactful low is expected to reach the Alaska Peninsula vicinity by Thursday, and then weakens as it emerges over the northern Gulf by Friday. Frigid conditions across the Interior are expected to moderate by mid-late week with stronger southerly flow. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Most of the 12Z guidance was in reasonably good agreement to begin the period Tuesday, with the exception of the CMC that is likely too far southwest with a surface low near the central Aleutians, and north of the consensus with a low over the eastern Gulf on Wednesday. By Thursday, there is broad synoptic scale agreement with the main trough over the Bering, but multiple mesoscale differences including a stronger low solution with the UKMET and GFS near the Alaska Peninsula. Looking ahead to Friday, the GFS becomes stronger with a surface low tracking from southwest to northeast into the Gulf, and big latitudinal differences are apparent with a new low pressure system on the western horizon by next Saturday across the western Bering. The ensemble means were increased to about half by this time. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of high winds and rough seas will affect much of the Bering Sea region and the adjacent coastlines of western Alaska and the Aleutians, with multiple low pressure systems moving through the region. The low pressure system that deepens near the Alaska Peninsula late in the week is expected to have an enhanced moisture plume directed at the south-central Gulf Coast from the Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region, and a heavy precipitation area has been added to the medium range hazards graphic to account for this, mainly for heavy mountain snows. Widespread subzero temperatures across the Interior this weekend are expected to warm into the 0s and 10s by early next week courtesy of increasing southerly flow in the low levels from the Bering Sea storm systems, and 20s for the southwestern mainland and 30s near the coast. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html