Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 633 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 18 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 22 Nov 2025 ...Synoptic Overview... During the course of the extended period a broad upper low will be present over the Bering and multiple shortwaves will be pivoting around the base of the flow. These will lead to sustaining the development of a few surface lows. The most impactful low is expected to reach the Alaska Peninsula vicinity by Thursday, and then weakens as it emerges over the northern Gulf by Friday. It will usher in significant waves to the Aleutians and will also direct a plume of deep moisture into the southern coast which will lead to heavy precipitation. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The latest suite of guidance were in decent agreement for much of the extend period, a nice change from several days of high variability in storm evolution. There is broad synoptic scale agreement with the main trough over the Bering, but multiple mesoscale differences including a stronger low solution with the UKMET and GFS near the Alaska Peninsula. Looking ahead to Friday, the GFS becomes stronger with a surface low tracking from southwest to northeast into the Gulf, and big latitudinal differences are apparent with a new low pressure system on the western horizon by next Saturday across the western Bering. WPC used a multi-model approach for a majority of the forecast and utilizing the ensemble means for mid and latter portions of the period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of high winds and rough seas will affect much of the Bering Sea region and the adjacent coastlines of western Alaska and the Aleutians, with multiple low pressure systems moving through the region. The low pressure system that deepens near the Alaska Peninsula late in the week is expected to have an enhanced moisture plume directed at the south-central Gulf Coast from the Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region, and a heavy precipitation area has been added to the medium range hazards graphic to account for this, mainly for heavy mountain snows. Meanwhile, temperatures across the Interior will ease up from being subzero and are expected to moderate to the singles and teens above zero as southerly flow increases. Campbell/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html