Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 558 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 20 Nov 2025 - 12Z Mon 24 Nov 2025 ...Synoptic Overview... During the course of the extended period a broad upper low will be present over the Bering Sea region, and multiple shortwaves will be pivoting around the base of the main low. These shortwaves will lead to sustaining the development of a few surface lows. The most impactful low is expected to reach the Alaska Peninsula vicinity by Thursday into early Friday, and then weakens as it emerges over the northern Gulf after that. It will bring high seas and strong winds from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula, and will also direct a plume of deep moisture into the southern coast with heavy coastal rain and mountain snow from the Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite featured decent synoptic scale agreement for the end of the week, including the main upper level vortex over the Bering Sea. There are increasing timing and amplitude differences going into next weekend, including the GFS that is more amplified with an upper trough extending over the Alaska Peninsula and the western Gulf when compared to the model consensus. The CMC is stronger with surface high pressure south of the Aleutians by next weekend as well. There has been a trend for a stronger ridge axis near the western Alaska coast by Sunday, and model agreement has improved with the next incoming storm system across the Bering by Sunday into Monday. A general deterministic model compromise was used for late in the week, followed by a greater percentage of the ensemble means by Sunday into Monday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Periods of high winds and rough seas will affect much of the Bering Sea region and the adjacent coastlines of western Alaska and the Aleutians, with multiple low pressure systems moving through the region. The low pressure system that deepens near the Alaska Peninsula late in the week is expected to have an enhanced moisture plume directed at the south-central Gulf Coast from the Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region, and a heavy precipitation area remains on the medium range hazards graphic to account for this, mainly for heavy mountain snows. Meanwhile, temperatures across the Interior should generally be in the 10s to middle 20s for highs, and 5-10 above for the normally colder valley locations. Highs in the 30s to lower 40s will be more likely near the southern coast. Campbell/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html