Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 614 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Valid 12Z Tue 25 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 29 Nov 2025 ...Overview... A blocky pattern across the mainland at the beginning of the period will give way to shortwave energy cutting across the interior from East to West mid-to-late next week and settling over the Bering Sea by next weekend. Meanwhile, climatological troughing will persist throughout the Aleutians next week, with amplification occurring late next week into the weekend. An anomalous ridge will develop over the mainland and Southeast AK next weekend. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... A general model blend consisting of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC was used along with the GEFS mean on day 4. The deterministic Euro was gradually decreased in weighting before complete removal from the blend by day 5. This is because it is a clear outlier with respect to the shortwave energy traversing the mainland mid-to-late next week, as it overamplifies the disturbance on day 6. The Canadian and GFS suites cluster well during the medium range period, so they were favored in the blend. The ensemble means had a reasonable amount of spread as well. The Euro mean was introduced to the blend on day 7 and maintained through day 8. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Persistent troughing across the Gulf Coast will promote light rain and mountain snow shower activity next week. Warm air advection from the Gulf will support above average temperatures along the southern mainland coast and work its way inland by next weekend beneath anomalous high pressure. High winds are possible for the Aleutians late next week as a deep low pressure system enters the region. This East Pacific system will carry substantial moisture with it and could produce atmospheric river conditions from the AKPen to the southern mainland coast with potential for moisture to penetrate into Southcentral Alaska. There's enough uncertainty in this day 8 forecast to preclude any hazard areas at this time. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html