Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 605 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 12Z Thu 27 Nov 2025 - 12Z Mon 01 Dec 2025 ...Overview... The medium range period over Alaska will remain fairly amplified with a building blocky ridge over the Eastern mainland into Western Canada forcing the storm track across the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea. A variety of shortwaves look to rotate around a mean upper low over the Bering Sea, keeping the Aleutians to Southern Coast and up across Western Alaska unsettled. A possible surface low towards the Peninsula region on Friday, followed by another one next weekend, will promote a period of moderate to heavy rain or snow across the Southern Coast and into parts of the Southeast. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... There is some general agreement on the large scale pattern through the period, but increasing uncertainty in the details of particularly the smaller scale surface lows towards the AK Pen/Southern Coast region. Models struggle with these weaker shortwaves, even as early as Friday, with the ECMWF and CMC much stronger with a surface low into the AK Pen than the GFS or the UKMET. And then following that, the deeper surface low lifting towards the same region next weekend. The UKMET was notably faster with this, with the GFS showing two separate surface lows. Preferred the evolution/track of the ECMWF and the CMC which were more in line with ensemble means (although the ECENS mean is faster than much of consensus). By Days 7 and 8, the ECMWF and CMC show another surface low south of the Aleutians but the GFS is much farther west. These various surface lows/upper waves affect how strong the ridging is over the eastern Mainland and western Canada. For the AK upper and surface progs, a general blend of the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS worked ok for Days 4 and 5, but gradually increased weighting of the ensemble means Day 6 and beyond amidst growing uncertainty. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... With weak low pressure systems and persistent onshore flow, the central Aleutians through the Southern Coast and Panhandle region will remain unsettled with light rain or snow mid to late next week, but nothing particularly hazardous or heavy. Onshore flow will strengthen ahead of a couple of low pressure systems towards the Alaska Peninsula region Friday through next weekend to promote more widespread moderate to heavy precipitation especially across the Alaska Peninsula to Kenai region and Kodiak Island, and possibly farther east. A heavy precipitation area continues on todays WPC hazards chart valid next Friday through Sunday. Lighter rain and snow may spread into parts of southwest Alaska and the Panhandle region as well with this system, and snow showers will gradually spread across the Mainland. Temperatures could be below normal to start the period across Eastern Alaska and the Southeast. The entire state however should trend warmer into next weekend as anomalous upper ridging builds in. Widespread anomalous 10 to 20+ degrees above normal are possible especially for Western/Central Alaska and the North Slope. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html