Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 525 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 28 Nov 2025 - 12Z Tue 02 Dec 2025 ...Overview... The upper level pattern will remain amplified through the weekend into early next week, with mean troughing/low pressure extending across the Bering Sea and Aleutians and strong ridging over eastern Alaska and western Canada. Several shortwaves pivoting around the trough/low will steer surface low pressure systems towards the Aleutians and southern Mainland. Precipitation chances will persist for the southern half of the state through the period, with chances for heavy precipitation along the coast Saturday through Monday. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Overall, there is good agreement amongst the ensembles and most of the deterministic models. The GFS seems to be an outlier, bringing surface lows further north into the Bering while the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET keep the lows south of the Aleutians. The northward solution from the GFS is not out of the realm of possibility, but appears unlikely. Therefore, the influence of the GFS was limited in WPC's model blend, instead favoring the ECMWF and CMC solutions. Model spread increases significantly near the end of the period, which is expected, and ensemble means from the ECENS, CMCE, and GEFS were added in increasing amounts to smooth out model differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A series of low pressure systems will bring unsettled weather from the central Aleutians through the southern Mainland and Southeast Alaska this weekend and early next week. Strong onshore flow ahead of one of the systems will result in a period of heavy precipitation Saturday through Monday, initially beginning along the southern coast then expanding towards Southeast Alaska. Precipitation chances will also spread into the interior and southwestern Alaska this weekend, resulting in show showers and periods of mixed/icy precipitation. Temperatures are expected trend well above average this weekend into early next week due to the influence of strong ridging to the east and prolonged southerly flow. Temperature anomalies are forecast to be 10-20+ degrees above normal, and high temperatures will likely rise above freezing for the Aleutians, southern Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. Dolan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html