Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 12Z Sat 29 Nov 2025 - 12Z Wed 03 Dec 2025
...Overview...
A pair of upper troughs and embedded shortwaves will rotate
through the Aleutians, AKPen and Central Gulf Coast this weekend,
while upper ridging persists over the Panhandle. An eastern
Siberian ridge will break down later in the period, allowing for
a mid-level disturbance to amplify over the western mainland.
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
There's good agreement between the available deterministic
guidance through day 6, therefore a general model blend consisting
of the GFS/CMC/EC were used in the days 4-6 blends. The GEFS mean
trended weaker than the Euro and Canadian suites with respect to
the ridge in the Panhandle beginning on day 6 so it was either
not included in the blend, or reduced in weighting compared to the
other models. The Euro suite and Canadian ensemble mean were
favored in the blend through day 8.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A series of low pressure systems will bring heavy rain, heavy
mountain snow and strong winds to the Gulf Coast, from the AKPen
to the Panhandle this weekend. Warm Gulf air will surge north
through the Gulf Coast and into Southcentral AK beginning late
this weekend and continuing through early next week. There's a
notable EFI signal for extreme temperatures with maximum temperatures
being 15-30 degrees above average across much of the mainland
early next week. The most significant precipitation will occur
Sunday night, when an atmospheric river arrives along the Central
Gulf Coast. This will be followed by another impactful round
arriving Tuesday over the Aleutians/AKPen and spreading into the
Central Gulf Coast.
Kebede
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html