Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 523 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 30 Nov 2025 - 12Z Thu 04 Dec 2025 ...Heavy Precipitation along Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week... ...Overview... A pair of mid-level closed lows and embedded shortwaves will rotate through the Aleutians, AKPen and Central Gulf Coast this weekend, while upper ridging persists over the Panhandle. Elsewhere, a northern stream trough will propagate across the Cukchi Sea, North Slope and Beaufort Sea. An eastern Siberian ridge will gradually build into the Bering Sea before the second closed low squeezes into the AKPen and phases with the northern stream trough over the western mainland by mid-week. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... There's reasonable agreement on the overall synoptic evolution of the mid-level pattern throughout the period. A general model blend consisting of the Euro suite, GFS and Canadian were used for the days 4 and 5 blends. The GEFS mean was introduced to the blend on day 6 and continued through the rest of the period, followed by the Canadian ensemble mean which was introduced on day 7 and continued through day 8. The GFS has a more amplified trough over the North Pacific/Aleutians through next Wednesday compared to the Euro and Canadian suites. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A series of low pressure systems will bring heavy rain, heavy mountain snow and strong winds to the Gulf Coast, from the AKPen to the Panhandle this weekend. Warm Gulf air will surge north through the Gulf Coast and into Southcentral AK beginning late this weekend and continuing through early next week. There's a notable EFI signal for extreme temperatures with maximum temperatures being 15-30 degrees above average across much of the mainland early next week. The most significant precipitation will occur Sunday night, when an atmospheric river arrives along the Central Gulf Coast. This will be followed by another impactful round arriving Tuesday over the Yukon, Kuskokwim, Bristol Bay, down to the Aleutians/AKPen and spreading across the Central Gulf Coast. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html