Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 524 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Valid 12Z Fri 05 Dec 2025 - 12Z Tue 09 Dec 2025 ...Overview... A closed low over the eastern Aleutians/AkPen will begin phasing with energy from a northern stream trough propagating across northern Alaska into the Canadian Yukon by Friday. Multiple shortwaves will shed from a deep mid-level low over Eastern Russia/Kamchatka beginning late Friday and merge with the newly developing closed low over Southern Alaska this weekend. This additional phasing will produce significant amplification along the Gulf Coast into early next week. Meanwhile, Siberian high pressure will persist and expand into the Bering Strait and parts of the Seward Peninsula/northwestern Alaska. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The Euro and GFS suites tended to capture the overall synoptic evolution of the mid-level pattern reasonably well for the medium range period. Therefore, they were favored in the multi-model blend throughout the forecast period. The deterministic Canadian model did not feature in any of the blends due to notable inconsistencies with the Euro/GFS clustered solutions. The GEFS and CMCE develop a lot of spread with respect to the timing of the upper trough over the western/Gulf Coasts this weekend. There's uncertainty on where exactly along the Gulf Coast a potentially impactful mid-level low and associated surface wave will set up late this weekend into next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Multiple waves of surface low pressure will produce rain and mountain snow over much of the Gulf Coast through this weekend. The amplifying upper trough will also generate strong/gusty winds across the southern tier of the state. Where this weekend/early next week's low sets up will determine the heavy precipitation potential along the Gulf Coast. High pressure from eastern Siberia to the North Slope will promote below average temperatures for those areas. Temperatures over portions of the Interior/Yukon Flats could drop well below average (-30F - -40F) this Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, a relatively tranquil/average forecast period for the state. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html