Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
647 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025
Valid 12Z Sun 07 Dec 2025 - 12Z Thu 11 Dec 2025
...Overview...
Multiple shortwaves will merge with the closed low over Southern
Alaska providing further amplification into early next week.
Meanwhile, Siberian high pressure will persist and expand into the
Bering Strait and parts of the Seward Peninsula/northwestern
Alaska.
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The ECWMF and GFS continue to provide the most reasonable
solutions of this pattern and were utilized more heavily than
other guidance. A previously notes, the deterministic Canadian
model did not feature in any of the blends due to notable
inconsistencies with the Euro/GFS clustered solutions, which
somewhat persisted with the most recent cycle. There's
uncertainty on where exactly along the Gulf Coast a potentially
impactful mid- level low and associated surface wave will set up
late this weekend into next week.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Multiple shortwaves crossing into the Gulf will merge into the low
in the Gulf, maintaining a mean trough and wet unsettled pattern
for the southern/southeast tier of the state. Heavy Rain and
mountain snow along with strong, gusty winds will accompany this
low near the Gulf Coast. High pressure from eastern Siberia to
the North Slope will promote below average temperatures for those
areas with the strong, gusty northeast winds. Temperatures over
portions of the Interior/Yukon Flats will begin below average
(-30F to -40F) and will slowly moderate through the week.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html