Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 547 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 12Z Sun 14 Dec 2025 - 12Z Thu 18 Dec 2025 ...Gusty gap winds expected this weekend and into next week for the Southern Coast region, with an anomalously cold airmass in place across much of Alaska... ...Overview... The large scale pattern over Alaska during the upcoming medium range period will be rather stagnant as an omega block sets up over the region. This is anchored by a mid-upper level high over the Bering Sea, with height anomalies over 3 standard deviations above normal. This will maintain troughing over eastern Alaska into the Gulf, with a variety of shortwaves rotating into the trough to maintain it through the period. Moisture will funnel into Southeast Alaska for the weekend into Monday associated with a cold front with northerly flow on the backside of a Gulf low leading to strong gap winds for the weekend into early next week. The deep troughing over Alaska will keep temperatures well below normal across much of the state well into next week, with potential for hazardously cold temperatures for parts of the Interior. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement on the overall pattern through much of the period. The upper high will meander over the Bering Sea the entire period. To the east, deep troughing will hold over eastern Alaska, with a broad closed low in the Gulf. Energy and shortwaves dropping south on the eastern side of the ridge continue to show some uncertainty in the strength and timing, but should act to reinforce the troughing/upper low over the Gulf with time. This also leads to late period uncertainty on the exact positioning of the upper high over the Bering and how quickly the low over the Gulf will weaken and shift east. The WPC forecast used a general deterministic model blend for the first half of the period, with more weighting towards the ECMWF and GFS. Incorporated increasing amounts of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by the end of the forecast period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Mean low pressure for the Gulf over the weekend and into early next week should lead to moist southwesterly flow into Southeast Alaska/the Panhandle for some precipitation. Cold temperatures in place will mean most of this precipitation falls as snow, and moderate snow totals are likely on Sunday and Monday especially. Behind the surface low, strong gap winds in the favorable locations along the Alaska Peninsula and Southern Coast are likely given the tight pressure gradient. Favorable gap flow is also likely for parts of the northern Panhandle, Yakutat, and nearby channels. High wind areas remain in place on the Day 3-7 Hazards product. Temperatures for much of Alaska will be very cold the entire period, with anomalies 20-40 degrees below normal expected. This could mean daily min temperatures as low as -50 for parts of the eastern Interior, and near or below zero for southern locations. A hazardous cold area was introduced on the hazards chart for today valid for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Southern parts of the Panhandle may not be as anomalous as the rest of the state due to relatively warmer moist inflow. And across the North Slope, temperatures should be near or above normal. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html