Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 535 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 12Z Mon 15 Dec 2025 - 12Z Fri 19 Dec 2025 ...Strong gap winds this weekend into early next week for the Southern Coast region... ...Hazardous cold next week for portions of Interior, South- Central and Southeast Alaska... ...Overview... The upper level patter will be fairly stagnant over Alaska next week as an omega block sets up over the region. Upper level ridging will extend from the North Pacific across the Aleutians and Bering Sea, and an upper level low will remain positioned over the Gulf of Alaska with troughing extending north across eastern Alaska. Several shortwaves will move around the low over the Gulf, which will drive a series of frontal systems with unsettled weather into Southeast Alaska. A relatively stronger low will deepen in the Gulf this weekend into early next week, which will support strong gap winds along the Southern Coast. This pattern will favor well below average temperatures for much of the state, with hazardous cold possible next week for portions of the Interior, South-Central, and Southeast Alaska. ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Model guidance continues to show good agreement on the overall weather pattern through next week. Predictability is high with this omega block pattern, resulting in increased confidence in today's forecast. The most uncertain part of the forecast will be timing and strength of shortwaves coming down the eastern side of the ridge and swinging around the Gulf low. These shortwaves will affect the timing of fronts moving into Southeast Alaska next week, and will also have an effect on how far west cold air will spread in Interior Alaska. Given good agreement, the WPC forecast was composed of a general deterministic model blend with ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS added (20-50%) late next week to help smooth out minor model differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Mean low pressure over the Gulf will focus moisture over Southeast Alaska and steer several cold fronts across the region. Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will be possible with a relatively stronger low on Sunday and Monday, and gusty winds are expected across the northern half of Southeast Alaska, with strong gap winds coming out of Cross Sound. Strong gap winds are also expected on the backside of the low over favored locations along the Southern Coast from the Kenai Peninsula to the eastern Aleutians. Low pressure over the Gulf should weaken and shift south mid-next week, which will result in decreasing precipitation chances across Southeast Alaska. As the low gradually shifts southwards, a cold front will move south across southwestern Alaska, which will result in another period of strong gap winds along the Southern Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere in the state, precipitation and wind hazards are not expected, but the North Slope and Interior could see some light snow showers as an Arctic cold front approaches mid-week. This cold front will skim the Northern Coast, then will lift northeast as a warm front. Temperatures for much of Alaska will be very cold next week, with anomalies 20-40 degrees below average expected. This could mean daily minimum temperatures as low as negative 50 for parts of the eastern Interior, and near or below zero for southern locations. Temperatures are expected to be hazardously cold from the Yukon Flats through the Copper River Basin and down into the northern Panhandle. Dolan/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html