Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 104 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 03 2019 - 12Z Thu Mar 07 2019 ...Summary... It remains the case that a powerful storm track is expected to hold in place from off eastern Asia northeastward into the Bering Sea over the next week. A mean trough aloft with embedded closed lows will continue to bring a series of deep lows into the Bering Sea that will move through the Aleutians toward western Alaska whose eastward motions should be limited by an amplified mid-upper level mean ridge built up through the Interior and North Slope. ...Guidance and Predictability Assessment... A composite blend of well clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/GEFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean offers a good basis for the forecast this weekend into Monday, but increasing model spread suggests a quick transition to the still compatable ensemble means later Monday into next Thursday/Day 8. This forecast maintains good continuity with yesterdays WPC forecast suite. ...Weather Highlights and Hazards... The next in a series of deep storms will effect the Aleutians and Bering Sea this weekend and early next week as it gradually lifts and weakens over the western Bering. Lead effects work to southwest Alaska/AKpen and western Alaska during this period. Another deep low tracks to the Aleutians in about a week. Otherwise, most of the rest of the state will remain mainly precipitation free under the mean upper ridge. Temperatures will be above average through the medium range period, with max anomalies likely across the North Slope into northwestern Alaska. Temperatures over the Panhandle will be slightly below average due to northeasterly/easterly flow out of Canada, especially for the weekend and into next week as the upper high slips northward and allows a cool push of air to leak southwestward out of the Yukon. Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php High significant wave heights/winds effecting coastal western AK, Mar 4-Mar 5. High winds across the Aleutians, Mar 3-Mar 4 and Mar 6-Mar 7. Schichtel WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html