Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 02 2019 - 12Z Sat Apr 06 2019
Closed upper high will slowly retreat from mainland Alaska
northwestward toward northeastern Russia later next week,
maintaining troughing along 45N well south of the 49th state.
Compact closed low currently over Southcentral will rotate
clockwise over the AKPen then around/over the Alaska Range and
back into the Gulf near Prince William Sound around Tue-Wed before
lingering in the col between ridging over southwestern Canada and
troughing over northwestern Canada and south of the Gulf. Main
storm track will be well south of the area and blend of the 12Z
FV3-GFS with the 00Z ECMWF added some details to the 06Z GEFS mean
and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. This mostly kept any intrusion of
lower heights over/east of the AK/Yukon border unlike some earlier
runs of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian--for now. Pattern would allow such
an evolution to occur but predictability is low. Precipitation
will be limited to parts of the Aleutians and increasingly over
the Panhandle with onshore flow ahead of a system south of the
Gulf late next week.
Fracasso
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
-No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html