Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Apr 02 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2019 - 12Z Wed Apr 10 2019
Models and ensembles generally agree that a positively tilted
upper trough across western and northern Alaska will deepen as it
retrogrades into the Bering Sea. Smaller scale details have been
run to run inconsistent, but overall this favors a cooling trend
for this medium range period across much of northern and interior
Alaska as a front settles down toward southern Alaska. Meanwhile,
an active storm track will stay mainly south of Alaska through the
next week. A consensus of guidance solutions show that the main
occluded cyclones will decay as they head over the Gulf of Alaska.
The threat also exists for a significant cyclone to impact the
western Aleutians by early next week. The WPC product suite was
primarily derived from a composite blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF
and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means Saturday through Monday and then
just the ensemble means day 7/8 in a period of quickly increasing
guidance forecast spread and uncertainty. Heavier precipitation
will be mainly limited to the Aleutians closer to the storm track,
along with into the Alaska Panhandle and southern coastal Alaska.
Schichtel
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards
-High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Sun-Mon, Apr 7-Apr 8.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html