Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 11 2019 - 12Z Mon Apr 15 2019
Troughing well southwest of the Aleutians will lift northeastward
into the Bering as ridging builds ahead of it into the Gulf and
eventually into the Beaufort Sea. Models/ensembles still struggle
with the specifics of how the system comes together with a trend
toward less consolidation. However, still expect the parent low to
linger for a couple days as the triple point low and frontal
system push through the Gulf and into the Panhandle. This will
spread rain/snow to the AKPen, Southcentral, and points eastward.
The North Slope and eastern interior will stay largely quiet and
mostly precipitation-free. Though the ensemble means were
relatively close to one another, the deterministic runs were not,
but added details via the 12Z FV3-GFS and 00Z ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET
as appropriate--though none exhibited a preferred evolution.
Next system of interest would be over the weekend into next week
as a system heads out of the central Pacific and along or just
across the Aleutians. 12Z GFS offered the closest track to the
largest ensemble clustering, though the 00Z ECMWF/Canadian were
not too far from that consensus.
Fracasso
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html