Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 21 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2019 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather Highlights/Hazards... GEFS/ECMWF ensembles seem reasonably compatable days 4-8. The 00 UTC ECMWF seemed to be the best clustered model with these ensemble systems. The WPC Alaskan product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of these guidance pieces along with the National Blend of Models as appropriate. This maintained good WPC continuity. However, newer 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF runs offer increased system variance, lending renewed caution with small-mid scale system aspects. That said, there is decent confidence the pattern over the next week will be highlighted by a deepened and meandering storm/low set to spin heavy winds/high seas and heavy precipitation next week over the northern Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska, especially in favored terrain. There may also be additional coastal focus into southeastern Alaska with potential triple point developments. This will overall be supported by amplified mean closed low/troughing aloft, with periodic upstream reinforcement from upper trough energies digging down over unsettled western/southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea. Schichtel Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Apr 20-Apr 22. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue-Wed, Apr 23-Apr 24. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Apr 20-Apr 21. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html