Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 23 2019 - 12Z Sat Apr 27 2019 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather Highlights/Hazards... It remains the case that model variance grows quickly next week, mainly with small-mid scale offshore lows. GEFS/ECMWF ensembles seem reasonably compatable early next week, but even the means still become quite varied by later next week. The pattern next week is not very active stormwise, but may be highlighted by a meandering surface low set to spin over the northern Gulf of Alaska. A main risk of wrapping precipitation will be over the Panhandle early week with heaviest amounts over favored terrain. The low will be supported by a mean upper closed low/trough over the Gulf whose position will be reinforced from upper trough energies digging from an unsettled southwest Alaska/AKpen and the southern Interior Alaska where modest snows are expected early week. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF offer a reasonable solution early week before solutions diverge. There is now less signal for renewed storm potential to effect the Aleutians mid-later next week considering suppressed/sheared 12 UTC GFS trends and to a lesser extent the GEFS. Recent ECMWF runs already hold systems well south of the Aleutians and remain more in line with ECMWF ensembles through midweek. Accordingly, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived from the ECMWF ensemble mean later week amid growing uncertainty, but favorable model trends. Schichtel Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy precipitation for the Alaska Panhandle Mon Apr 22. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html