Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2019 - 12Z Sun Apr 28 2019
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF now offer a reasonably similar solution
Wedensday into early Thursday. The 12 UTC GFS trended strongly
toward a solution in line with the 00/12 UTC ECMWF that suppresses
a main Pacific storm track well to the south of the state. The 06
UTC GFS was the most recent GFS run to act as a much further north
outlier in initialization sensitive model flow. Model and
ensembles solutions diverge thereafter though, but the 00 UTC
ECMWF ensemble mean and to a lesser extent 00/12 UTC ECMWF runs
cluster better through late next week and maintain more WPC
continuity than recent GFS/Canadian and GEFS/NAEFS runs.
...Weather Highlights...
The pattern next week is not very active with a main storm track
well south of the state, but seems highlighted by
periodic/persistent but limited surface low formation and
meandering into the northern Gulf of Alaska. Expect light to
moderate rounds of daily precipitation will wrap inland into
southern and southeastern sections of the state as enhanced over
favored coastal terrain. These lows will be supported by a cooling
mean upper closed low/trough over the Gulf whose position will be
reinforced from upper trough energies digging from an unsettled
southwest Alaska, the Alaskan peninsula and southern Alaskan
Interior.
Schichtel
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html