Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 27 2019 - 12Z Wed May 01 2019
Ensembles show a trend toward increased upper ridging centered
along 150-160W next week, keeping the storm track through the
western Bering Sea. This will result in much milder/drier
conditions for most of the mainland with high pressure at the
surface anchored over the area. 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF showed good
clustering near the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean (and somewhat the 06Z
GEFS mean) with couple modest systems lifting across the western
Aleutians northward into northeastern Russia this weekend into
next week. Preferred to keep a majority deterministic blend
through day 8 to maintain the upper ridge. Increasing heights to
the east will prevent the front from moving east to the western
coast.
Temperatures will increase through the weekend into next week well
into the 50s through Southcentral and the interior. EKDMOS 80-90th
percentile values exceed 60F in some locations (Anchorage) or 70F
(McGrath, Fairbanks, Gulkana) which would be within a few degrees
of record highs. Precipitation will be confined to the Aleutians
most days and the Panhandle this weekend, but isolated showers
cannot be ruled out along the western coastline and interior even
with the ridge in place.
Fracasso
Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon, Apr 29.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html