Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 12Z Wed May 15 2019 - 12Z Sun May 19 2019
Upper ridging is forecast to remain dominant over the high
latitudes over Russia and northern Canada (into northeastern
Russia) as well as across the subtropics near Hawai'i. This favors
troughing across the Bering Sea and along 50N to the south of the
Gulf of Alaska. The ensembles were in very good agreement overall
though the pattern contains several small-scale features that the
ensembles are unable to fully capture. However, the 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian formed a good consensus with a system projected
to move generally well south of the area but close enough to wrap
some moisture through its circulation into Southcentral (plus
additional moisture for a lead system rotating/weakening into the
Gulf Wed/Thu), with more over the Panhandle and Aleutians. The 12Z
GFS was off in timing from the 00Z consensus and was not used.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html