Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 Valid 12Z Sun May 26 2019 - 12Z Thu May 30 2019 Model guidance continues to show decent agreement on the synoptic evolution in and around Alaska through the medium range period. The upper-level pattern continues to favor a blocking ridge over mainland Alaska and into the Northeast Pacific, as occluded cyclones track across the central Aleutians and gradually dissipate in the vicinity of the eastern Aleutians. This will allow unsettled weather to continue across much of the Aleutians into the southern part of mainland Alaska. The blocking ridge over the Northeast Pacific will begin to show signs of breaking down during the weekend as model ensembles show excellent agreement on the approach of the next occluded cyclone to the eastern Aleutians from the south. A consensus of the 00Z EC mean and the 06Z GEFS together with a small amount of their operational solutions were used to generate the WPC grids for Alaska for Days 7-8. The operational solutions generally place the center of the cyclone farther south of the Aleutians than their ensemble means. The blend of these models yielded solutions that agree very well with yesterday's WPC forecasts. The resulting cyclone tracks slightly south of the eastern Aleutians for next Tuesday into Wednesday, and becomes nearly stationary in that vicinity by next Thursday. More operational solutions from the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF were incorporated for Days 4-6. Kong Hazards: -Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Tue, May 25-May 28. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html