Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 Valid 12Z Mon May 27 2019 - 12Z Fri May 31 2019 Model guidance continues to show decent agreement on the synoptic evolution in and around Alaska through the medium range period. The upper-level pattern continues to favor a blocking ridge over mainland Alaska and into the Northeast Pacific, steering occluded cyclones toward the central and eastern Aleutians where they gradually weaken and dissipate. Despite large spread in the model solutions downstream across the Northeast Pacific into the west coast of North America, model ensembles show very good agreement on an occluded cyclone to meander in the vicinity of central to eastern Aleutians for a good part of next week. This will allow unsettled weather to continue across much of the Aleutians into the southern part of mainland Alaska, where heavy rain is possible near the immediate coast. The blocking ridge over the Northeast Pacific should begin to nudge eastward as the next occluded cyclone approaches the central Aleutians from the south early next week. A consensus of the 00Z EC mean and the 06Z GEFS together with a small amount of the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF were used to generate the WPC grids for Alaska for Days 7-8. The operational solutions generally place the center of the cyclone farther south of the Aleutians than their ensemble means. The blend of these models yielded solutions that agree very well with yesterday's WPC forecasts. The resulting cyclone center meanders from central to eastern Aleutians through the middle of next week into Friday. More operational solutions from the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF were incorporated for Days 4-6. Kong Hazards: -Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Tue, May 25-May 28. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html