Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 08 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2019 - 12Z Sun Jun 16 2019 An upper low persists during day 4-8 to the north in the Arctic Ocean with a trough extending south to northern AK. The net placement among the models/ensembles was southeast of yesterday's forecasts. Once the stalls around day 6, the consensus was actually retrogression days 7-8, so the low and attendant circulation look to be around through the period. The retrograding low allows upper ridging to extend west from the Yukon across northern AK by next Sun 16 Jun. Models/ensembles remain in good agreement overall and a blend of the 12Z GFS with the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean/06z GEFS Mean/00z Canadian global was used, given better than usual clustering of solutions. The initial cyclone drifting northeast into the Gulf of AK will weaken as it moves east day 4 12 June and on day 5 13 Jun as it approaches the coastal areas of southern to southeast AK/panhandle. Expect a period of showers for Southeastern Alaska. The probability of showers declines once the system decays. The next cyclone drifting slowly east from the Western Pacific should move just south of the chain on Wed 12 Jun, bringing rain/windy conditions through the islands. As the system departs the lower Aleutians Thu-Fri, the rain and winds subside, while they pick up closer to the low in Kodiak Island and the southern AK peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble Mean move a few hours faster than the last few GFS and GEFS Mean runs. A blend of the models/ensembles was used to mitigate the differences. Next weekend another cyclone originates from a western Pacific frontal system. Differences grow with time although the 00z ECMWF and 12z GFS cluster well for now. Time will tell whether the confluence of solutions remains or not. I still blended with the GEFS/ECMWF Ensemble means to not commit to any one track or intensity. Large changes in the new ECMWF with the cyclone displaced several hundred miles further east next Sun 16 Jun show lower than normal confidence exists. Petersen Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html