Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 17 2019 - 12Z Fri Jun 21 2019
Two upper lows near the area at the start of the period--one near
Banks Island in the Canadian archipelago and the other south of
Kodiak--will move eastward away from the 49th state next week. By
the end of the period, weak flow is forecast for the high
latitudes as upper ridging holds (but weakens) in the Bering Sea.
The latest 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF offer reasonable clustering near
the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean and somewhat the 06Z GEFS mean so that
a blend of those solutions offered a good starting point while
maintaining some definition early in the period. Lead system will
push through the Panhandle Monday but the parent low will linger
and slowly dissipate as the upper low weakens and then moves
eastward as well.
To the north, a pesky upper low will wobble just west of Banks
Island and then likely lift northeastward mostly in tandem with
the low through Southeastern Alaska. With upper ridging initially
in the Bering but the strongest Pacific upper height anomalies
forecast to be in the mid-latitudes, this will likely leave much
of Alaska in a void/col region between these features. Higher than
average heights over the Bering will remain--generally above
5640m.
Precipitation with the lead system will move through Southcentral
and especially the Panhandle early in the week. After Wednesday,
precipitation coverage and amounts will lower significantly with
the lack of upper/sfc support. Temperatures will be near to above
normal through the interior but near to below normal along/north
of the North Slope and along the Gulf of Alaska coast.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html