Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 05 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 09 2019 ...Record heat for much of Southcentral Alaska... ...Guidance and Predictability Assessment... An intense upper high will only slowly weaken and drift westward away from Southcentral by next week after building into the region from the south over the next few days. The ensembles were in good agreement on maintaining the upper high a bit longer compared to 24 hrs ago, and the 12Z/06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF mostly followed along with their ensemble means. With the good clustering that kept the systems on the fringes around the high, a blend sufficed to minimize daily shifts in the smaller-scale details. Shortwave atop the upper high will likely allow a front to move eastward through the Beaufort Sea and then southeastward, bringing in cooler air to northern/northeastern areas next week. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... The upper high will favor well above average temperatures near daily record highs in many locations from southwestern Alaska eastward toward the Panhandle. Temperatures may approach or exceed 90F in the interior. Precipitation chances will be limited to near the Brooks Range and northeastern Alaska as the front works its way eastward/southeastward, and then into southeastern areas and the Panhandle as the front dips southward and a system in the northeast Pacific lifts toward the coast. The dry/warm conditions through much of the state will favor a wildfire risk through the period. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu-Mon, Jul 4-Jul 8. - Excessive heat across portions of southern mainland Alaska, Thu-Mon, Jul 4-Jul 8. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html