Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2019
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 05 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 09 2019
...Record heat for much of Southcentral Alaska...
...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...
An intense upper high will only slowly weaken and drift westward
away from Southcentral by next week after building into the region
from the south over the next few days. The ensembles were in good
agreement on maintaining the upper high a bit longer compared to
24 hrs ago, and the 12Z/06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF mostly followed
along with their ensemble means. With the good clustering that
kept the systems on the fringes around the high, a blend sufficed
to minimize daily shifts in the smaller-scale details. Shortwave
atop the upper high will likely allow a front to move eastward
through the Beaufort Sea and then southeastward, bringing in
cooler air to northern/northeastern areas next week.
...Weather/Threats Highlights...
The upper high will favor well above average temperatures near
daily record highs in many locations from southwestern Alaska
eastward toward the Panhandle. Temperatures may approach or exceed
90F in the interior. Precipitation chances will be limited to near
the Brooks Range and northeastern Alaska as the front works its
way eastward/southeastward, and then into southeastern areas and
the Panhandle as the front dips southward and a system in the
northeast Pacific lifts toward the coast. The dry/warm conditions
through much of the state will favor a wildfire risk through the
period.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Alaska
Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu-Mon, Jul 4-Jul 8.
- Excessive heat across portions of southern mainland Alaska,
Thu-Mon, Jul 4-Jul 8.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html