Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2019 - 12Z Wed Jul 10 2019 ...Record heat for much of Southcentral Alaska... ...Guidance and Predictability Assessment... An intense upper high will only slowly weaken and drift westward across western Alaska and perhaps into the Bering Sea next week. The ensembles were in good agreement on maintaining the upper high through the period, with slow movement due to the combination of a large scale rex block and omega block. A mid level shortwave atop the upper high in the Beaufort Sea will likely allow a front to move into northern AK, bringing in cooler air to northern/northeastern areas next week. The 06-12z GFS moves systems faster than the 00z ECMWF and 00z ECMWF Ensemble Mean and 06z GEFS Mean, including the aforementioned wave, and subsequent north Pacific cyclones next week. With better than average overlap among the 00z ECMWF Ensemble Mean, 06z GEFS Mean, and 00z Canadian ensemble mean, a consensus based approach should work well. The ECMWF Mean and 06z GEFS Mean were blended with the operational 00z ECMWF for the fronts/sea level pressure forecasts, and gridded forecasts for temperatures, dew points, etc. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... The upper high will favor well above average temperatures with potential for daily record highs in many locations across southern mainland AK. Daily high temperatures may approach or exceed 90F in the interior this weekend. Precipitation chances will be limited to near the Brooks Range and northeastern Alaska as the front works its way eastward/southeastward, and then into southeastern areas and the Panhandle as the front dips southward. The dry/warm conditions in the rest of mainland will favor a wildfire risk through the period. Petersen - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Alaska Panhandle, mainland Alaska, and the Aleutians, Fri-Tue, Jul 5-Jul 9. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Tue, Jul 6-Jul 9. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html