Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2019
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 07 2019 - 12Z Thu Jul 11 2019
...Record heat for much of South-central Alaska...
...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...
The intense Rex/Omega block that has been anchored over the region
the better part of the last week plus will slowly weaken and drift
to the west. This will favor the trough over the Bering Sea to
move eastward and this is supported by model guidance and the
means. As the ridge weakens, shortwave energy will ride the top
near the Beaufort Sea and send a front into north Alaska; cooler
temperatures will usher into the north and northeast by the end of
the period.
The GFS continues to be more progressive than the rest of the
guidance, while remaining within the overall cluster. The chosen
blend utilized a slightly higher weighting of the GFS to help
trend the trough further east into the Gulf, in addition to the
ECWMF, its ensemble means and the GEFS mean.
...Weather/Threats Highlights...
Well-above average temperatures, 90F and above, may reach or
exceed daily records for many locations across the southern
Mainland through the weekend. Precipitation chances will be
limited to near the Brooks Range and northeastern Alaska as the
front moves east/southeastward, eventually into the Panhandle as
the front dips southward. The rather hot and dry conditions will
keep an elevated risk for critical fire conditions for a vast
portion of the state.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the mainland Alaska,
Sat-Wed, Jul 6-Jul 10.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Alaska
Panhandle, Sat-Sun, Jul 6-Jul 7.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sat-Wed, Jul 6-Jul 10.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska
Panhandle, Sat-Sun, Jul 6-Jul 7.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html