Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 09 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019
...Record heat for much of South-central Alaska...
...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...
The intense ridge that has been anchored over mainland Alaska is
progged to weaken and drift westward over the coming week. This
westward shift will be favorable for the trough over the Bering
Sea progress eastward. The latest model guidance supports this;
however, it should be noted that the CMC yesterday was suggesting
that the ridge would be slower to move out and today's runs of the
12Z GFS, CMC and even the ECWMF is trending toward that solution
as well. Shortwave energy will pass through the top of the
weakening ridge near the Beaufort Sea and will usher in slightly
cooler air into northern and central Alaska.
The preferred blend for this forecast comprised of the 12Z CMC,
12Z GFS, 12Z ECWMF ensemble mean, 12Z GEFS mean and the NAEFS mean.
...Weather/Threats Highlights...
Daily maximum temperatures will generally be in the 80s and 90s
through the middle of next week for a vast portion of the Mainland
and the southeast. Temperatures will cool to the 70s and 80s by
next weekend, allowing for some relief from the prolonged heat.
These temperatures could easily tie, or set new records into early
next week. In addition to the very warm temperatures, many
locations will remain dry as well; which will prolong the critical
fire weather conditions and increase risk for wildfires to spread.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html