Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019
The anomalous upper level ridge that is anchored over Alaska this
weekend is forecast to slowly weaken and retrograde to the west
over western Siberia and the northern Bering Sea by the beginning
of the medium range forecast period. The ensemble means continue
to support a broad ridge axis extending across the Alaska mainland
although mid-level heights will be lower than they are currently.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level gyre centered near the western
Aleutians at the beginning of the forecast period is progged to
slow track to the east across the southern Bering Sea, with
multiple shortwave perturbations pivoting around it. Given
reasonable synoptic scale agreement among the deterministic
models, a blend of the CMC/GFS/ECMWF sufficed through day 6,
followed by increasing percentages of the EC and GEFS means by
days 7 and 8.
Daily maximum temperatures will gradually cool to the 70s and 80s
by next weekend, allowing for some gradual abatement to the
prolonged heat. There may still be some opportunities for some
additional record highs early in the forecast period. In addition
to the very warm temperatures, many locations will remain dry as
well, prolonging the critical fire weather conditions and
increasing risk for wildfires to spread. There will be scattered
showers and storms across the southern third of the state.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html