Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019 The anomalous upper level ridge that is anchored over Alaska this weekend is forecast to slowly weaken and retrograde to the west over western Siberia and the northern Bering Sea by the beginning of the medium range forecast period. The ensemble means continue to support a broad ridge axis extending across the Alaska mainland although mid-level heights will be lower than they are currently. Meanwhile, a broad upper level gyre centered near the western Aleutians at the beginning of the forecast period is progged to slow track to the east across the southern Bering Sea, with multiple shortwave perturbations pivoting around it. Given reasonable synoptic scale agreement among the deterministic models, a blend of the CMC/GFS/ECMWF sufficed through day 6, followed by increasing percentages of the EC and GEFS means by days 7 and 8. Daily maximum temperatures will gradually cool to the 70s and 80s by next weekend, allowing for some gradual abatement to the prolonged heat. There may still be some opportunities for some additional record highs early in the forecast period. In addition to the very warm temperatures, many locations will remain dry as well, prolonging the critical fire weather conditions and increasing risk for wildfires to spread. There will be scattered showers and storms across the southern third of the state. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html