Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 11 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019
The anomalous upper level ridge that has been anchored over Alaska
recently will continue to weaken some and retrograde to the west
over western Siberia and the northern Bering Sea by the beginning
of the medium range forecast period. The ensemble means continue
to support a broad ridge axis extending across the Alaska mainland
although mid-level heights will be lower than they are currently.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level gyre centered near the western
Aleutians at the beginning of the forecast period is progged to
slow track to the east across the southern Bering Sea, with
multiple shortwave perturbations pivoting around it. Given
reasonable synoptic scale agreement among the deterministic
models, a blend of the CMC/GFS/ECMWF sufficed through day 6,
followed by increasing percentages of the EC and GEFS means by
days 7 and 8.
Daily maximum temperatures are forecast to generally be in the 70s
to middle 80s for inland portions of the state, and cooler near
the coastal areas for the end of the week. There may be a few
additional record highs, however the most anomalous readings are
expected before the commencement of the medium range period.
Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler by next weekend
and beyond. There will be some scattered showers and storms
around during the afternoon hours across portions of southern
Alaska, and also across the central Aleutians as the Pacific low
passes by the region.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html