Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2019
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 12 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 16 2019
The anomalous upper level ridge that has been anchored over Alaska
the better part of 2 weeks will continue weaken and shift a bit
westward during the extended period. Model guidance, including the
ensemble means, support this pattern although mid-level heights
will be lower than they are currently.
The broad low near the western Aleutians will slowly track east
over the next week with multiples disturbances tracking through
the Gulf of Alaska. The chosen blend for this forecast consisted
of the CMC/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS mean/NAEFS mean/ECWMF mean with
increased weighting of the means by the later periods.
With the ridge weakening/shifting, temperatures across the state
will in the 70s and 80s for much of the interior and a bit cooler
near the coasts. A few daily temperature records may be tied or
broken early in the period. Afternoon showers and storms may
develop across portions of southern Alaska, and also across the
central Aleutians as the Pacific low passes by the region.
Campbell/Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Alaska
Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu, Jul 11.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Thu, Jul 11.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html